« Seriously, we are totally going to comply with the whole cease-fire thing tomorrow »

I’m sitting here trying to find the right analogy for the current Russia-Georgia conflict. At first I thought that it was like those two people who are consistently at odds with each other, but you know they just want to sleep together.

Or maybe it’s like the classic divorce case, where the parents are fighting over the only child because they have nothing else that proves their time together was worthwhile, or because they just want to be loved, or because they don’t want to pay child support.

Maybe it’s like the bully and the nerd, where the—oh no wait! I’ve got it. It’s like the older sister and the little brother who are sitting in the back seat of the family car on a long trip. The little brother is slowly spreading his body out so that it is just barely touching the disputed imitation leather ridge in the backseat, and the older sister is sitting there on her half of the back seat going “I’m not touching you… I’m not touching you.” But the car is an old Lada, and, despite not overtly admitting to it, she’s actually paying a middle sister to hover her finger next to the little brother’s ear while she’s saying this. So then, Mom says that she thinks the boy is being very good, and will get ice cream at the next exit. At this point, the oldest sister tells everyone in the car that she is going to NOW start paying the middle sister to tacitly threaten her brother. Then the older sister coldly nods at the middle sister who pulls out a gun. The little brother then sees the gun and pokes the eye of the mercenary sister. So the oldest sister gets another gun out, and gives it to the middle sister to use with her free hand. When the little brother tells mom that he is going to have a temper tantrum if he sees any more guns, the older sister tells everyone in the car that the little brother is getting a little hot headed, and orders fighter jets to buzz the car in an attempt to calm him down. Then the little brother leans into the guns and goes, “SEE? You ARE touching me!” and then fires a rock from a slingshot at the middle sister’s knee. Then the older sister pulls out her own guns, and she and the middle sister empty a couple of clips into the little brother’s arm. So the little brother gets on the phone with Wolf Blitzer and is like, “are you for real? What the hell did I do?” And Wolf goes, “Do you think Dad should lean back there and threaten to turn the car around?” Except that Dad, despite favoring the little brother, is REALLY sick of all the crap that goes on in the back seat. He never really understands what their problem is, and, to be honest, he’s a little saddle sore from fighting with this Arab dude who is, at this moment, standing on the hood of the car and kicking the windshield in (though, admittedly, the Arab guy is getting tired).

As of this writing (8/14/2008), there have been, I believe, fifteen cease-fires called for in the conflict over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (of course, the Russian version of a cease-fire is demanding that the other side be crushed without complaining). The actual one that was supposedly signed and breached by both sides nearly simultaneously is the one that some early reports were calling “the French Brokered” cease-fire. This annoys me to no end, because it is “EU brokered”. The only reason Sarkozy is handling this is because it’s his turn to be the head of the EU. Otherwise, he would probably just be on the phone.

(Do you remember when Sarkozy was first in office and he was attending that G8 summit in Heiligendamm, and for some reason or the other, the press caught a ton of pictures of him with his cell phone? Now, no matter what I do, whenever I see him in a picture talking to someone, I always imagine him saying “lemme just scoop this call up real quick,” in kind of a Uralic, neo-suave way.)

So peace is apparently on the way. Actually, that’s the funniest part. Peace has been aggressively targeted for a few months. Quite a few months ago, Russia was busy building up its peacekeeping force in Abkhazia, and being accused of threatening war. But hey, c’mon. Russia is a peace-loving nation. Why would they want anything to do with some screwy, local police action? The more peacekeepers they deploy, the more peace there will be, eh?

Besides the fact that the two “breakaway regions” both share the Russian border (and Abkhazia has a nice, little coast on the Black Sea, where I’m sure the vacation housing market is very reasonable), and besides the fact that Emperor Putin has been trying to help Russia regain its old git-up-‘n’-go since the fall of the USSR (with plenty of help from local mafias) and is likely pleased that Mr Medvedev is continuing the brand, it seems that a lot of this conflict just comes down to the old oil racket. The pipeline that spans along this region pumps out about 1% of the world’s oil output a day. The grand majority of this goes to Europe, so it doesn’t affect us directly, but protecting it keeps it out of the hands of someone who is a little too happy to assert his power with a Snidely Whiplash-esque flair.

So, we want to protect our buddies who run god-fearing democracies, and we want to protect oil, and any time a MiG flies or an AK discharges, the bat signal goes up over DC because, as we all know, Russia is the Legion of Doom. Makes sense. But do we need to help out? Well, we’ve already sent over and promised further humanitarian aid, and that’s our role with friends. Our diplomatic efforts have included threatening to throw Russia out of the G8 coffee club (that Mr Putin treated like his mom signed him up for it), and cancelling a cute military party that Russia was going to co-host with NATO.

I am certain that the news of these threats sent Russia’s borscht futures through the floor, but that might not be enough. Inquiring minds really want to know if we are going to respond with our military. I figure since we probably had a hand in the arms that were bulking up Georgia’s military, we have probably done our part on that front. So what do we do? WHAT DO WE DO?!

One thing that it appears no one is considering is that Abkhazia and South Ossetia want to get the hell out of Georgia. They have wanted complete independence since the breakup of the USSR. They have elected their own parliaments that have said this and asked to be recognized by the world community.They have had their own referendums that have said this and asked to be recognized by the world community. They might be trying to leave a “democracy”, but it seems to be something that the people there have wanted for a long time, and have felt very hopeful about since the quasi-break of Kosovo in February. We supported that, but this is different. This is a country that is trying to become sovereign when it is already part of a western-style democracy. But it has hoped and pleaded to break off using diplomatic means, aggressive means, and likely taking money from Russia to do so, so that just doesn’t compute. Why would anyone want to leave a democracy when it’s the best type of government in the world?

To be honest, that doesn’t matter. President Bush is using the old standard of Protecting Democratic Interests when talking about returning the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgian control and it is just plain embarrassing. If we really wanted to protect democracy, we would have supported the breakaway regions from the beginning, and we would have tried to negotiate agreements between Saakashvili and those regions to move towards independence separately. We would have implanted ourselves there, despite all the money and all the people that Russia has been dumping over the border for decades, and we would have made them all allies. And then—and THEN—imagine how pissed off Russia would have been if we had turned their whole border project right around on them and had three happily trading, and economically burgeoning sovereign states who were all friends of the USA.

I mean, isn’t pissing off Russia the point?

I realize, of course, that it’s not nearly that simple. But it certainly comports with our supposed beliefs as a torch bearer for freedom. Democracy by fiat seems like something that we would fight against. If we want to go in there and fight for the pipeline and push Russia back for no reason other than money and hubris, fine. But we are not going to because 1) those are all losing military scenarios, and 2) we just don’t have the power to do that right now without starting a world war. Instead, we throw words at it that we think bear the standards of our beliefs as a nation.

If we were real diplomats, we would support what we are actually supposed to believe in, and not just what we want.

Comments

[Karl Kautsky]

I'm in favor of anything that increases the chances, however infintessimally, of a Yakov Smirnoff comeback

[TheGoch]

Did you hear? Condi Rice's overbite flew over to Tblisi and got another cease fire signed. Turns out Putin's Puppets are really vampires and can't stand seeing their reflections in Condi's massive chompers.

[a.s.]

I think that maybe your analogy was actually more confusing than what is actually going on and I will go back to reading the Economist's easier version of what is going on in that part of Earth.

[colonos]

Here is a bit of counter propaganda from the Russian side of things - not to suggest that Russia is any good, but just to reaffirm that the U.S. are behind the scenes as usual.
=====================================================

World Opinion Favors Russia - Winning the Media War!!!

Even Americans are saying, “Thank you Russia for standing up to the crackpots in control of our government.” As much as the corporate elitist media in the west blathers and carries on with lies and obfuscation about the events in Georgia and South Ossetia, as much as they try to cover up the facts and the truth and the war crimes committed by their puppet state, Georgia, they have failed to convince the world community.

Their all too numerous outlets are pummeling the world community with distortions, trying to shove the castor oil of the empire down our collective throats, but the gag reflex is well intact and their lies remain unpalatable. The empire is used to and expects everyone to jump when told to and to believe what they hear and read. They don’t expect and can’t understand when someone or some country tells them to back off with their egotistical, haughty, self important orders or pronouncements. But their “orders” and pronouncements have become irrelevant. We are again living in a multicolor world.

Comments from the World Community

In a recent Internet tally asking respondents who they favor, 75.8% were in favor of Russia and only 24.2% in favor of Georgia. Some American respondents actually came right out and thanked Russia for standing up to their government, referring to their government as “crackpots“ and “lunatics.”

One respondent said that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should become independent and the west lives under double standards. Another wrote, “the Abkhaz, Ossetian and Adjarian people will never agree to live under Georgian arrogant oppression.”

Yet another respondent said, “This is NATO’s prime moment to show that it as an organization is not yet obsolete.” Of course we heard this when Yugoslavia was bombed too. In another comment he said, “I literally laughed out loud when President Bush made his speech toward Russia about how ‘bullying is unacceptable in foreign policy in the 21st century.’”

A respondent who considers himself a Republican wrote, “There is no reason that we should be antagonizing them on their border. It scares me that this oilman president will take us into another war with a much more deadly foe over an oil pipeline through Georgia. I am a registered Republican, but enough is enough. Impeach George Bush, if he gets us involved in the Russo-Georgian war.”

Some notable and succinct quotes from another:
“I feel like I am living in the bizarro world. Do you people not realize that Georgia started the conflict. Do you people not realize that Georgia attacked civilians and peacekeeping troops in an INTERNATIONAL ZONE. Do you not realize that the news media has been caught showing footage of the destroyed cities in Ossetia (destroyed by Georgians) and claims it is Gori and Russian aftermath. Do you not realize that the Caucasus Region is an oil pipeline area. Do you not realize that the US armed and trained the Georgians.”

“Georgia’s president is the new Hitler. He is invading areas and his lies are so incredibly manipulative. The American Media is really showing stupidity here in hopes for new cold war ratings. Neo-cons and globalists are thrilled because now Russia has taken its eye off of the Iran situation.”

Another poll taken in Greece yielded the following results:

Who is responsible for the war:

1. Georgia who started the attack and the US who encouraged them

(77.86%, or 3559 votes)

2. The Russians

(3.22 %, 147 votes)

3. All of them

(15.99 % , 731 votes)

4. I don’t know

(2.93 %, 134 votes)

South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgia in the 1990s when Georgia itself broke away from the Soviet Union. Saaskashvili was determined not only to reincorporate them into Georgia again, entirely against the will of their inhabitants, but to punish them for wanting to be independent. There are no military installations or targets in the city of Tskhinvali, none whatsoever. It is an industrial center, with quiet civilian residential areas. It was the home to 30,000 South Ossetians.

When Saakashvili ordered the city to be bombed by warplanes and shelled by heavy artillery, he knew that he would be killing hundreds of civilians in their homes and neighborhoods. But he was determined to have what he wanted and ordered the bombing anyway. What took place in South Ossetia was not merely an invasion or a siege, it was a bloody massacre, a genocide. The people had no way to defend themselves against a fully equipped modern army. It was a war crime and the world community is fully aware of that fact despite the best efforts of the western corporate media to conveniently omit reporting on the crime.

By the time the Georgians along with their American and Israeli enablers were driven out, the city’s downtown area was in engulfed in flames and strewn along streets and sidewalks were the bodies of those who had been killed by sniper fire. Those who did not flee and stayed behind were simply too old, handicapped or infirm to leave. They had to seek shelter in basements waiting for the shelling to stop. It was a bloodbath. The city’s only hospital was deliberately targeted and destroyed, another war crime. Over 2,000 people were killed in an operation that was clearly engineered with the full knowledge, planning and assistance of the Bush White House.

An independence referendum was held in 2006: 99% of South Ossetians said they wanted independence from Georgia. The voter turnout was 95% and the balloting was monitored by 34 international observers from the west. No one has challenged the results. The province has been under the protection of Russian and Georgian peacekeepers since 1992, and has been a de facto independent state ever since.

If Russia applied the same standard as Bush did in Kosovo, he would unilaterally declare South Ossetia independent from Georgia and then thumb his nose at the empire and anyone else objecting.

The representative of Russia to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, was quite blunt in announcing some home truths. “If we all respect the territorial integrity of Serbia in regards to its Kosovo province, then we are also going to honor the territorial integrity of Georgia. But if someone doesn’t respect Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty over Kosovo and Metohija, then they better shut up about the territorial integrity of Georgia”, Rogozin said.

Meanwhile it is absurd to listen to Bush, Rice and Gates jump up and down about borders, territorial integrity and sovereignty when they have shown no respect for any international laws, treaties or agreements they have made. Borders and sovereignty are only concepts they talk about when convenient for their interests. Hypocritically they speak of “bullying” and of the 21st Century as one where nations don’t go around invading other nations…while they themselves have done so seemingly with impunity and certainly with the complete disapproval of the world community.

Lisa KARPOVA

PRAVDA.Ru

----------and also:

Mr. Bush, Enough!!

By Lisa KARPOVA

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20533.htm

14/08/08 "Pravda" -- - So you have the colossal audacity, Mr. Bush, to “warn” Russia to pull back? As the wanton, perverse war criminal under whose watch the world saw the crime known as “shock and awe” committed, I’d say you were well out of your mind to suggest that Russia should pull back.

What’s a little shock and awe among inferior people we want to rob and destroy, eh?

What do human beings need an infrastructure for?

Why do they need clean water? Why do they need electricity?

What’s a little torture?

What’s a little regime change? Don’t recall when that was a goal of yours?

What’s a little deviant, perverted sexual experimentation and humiliation?

What’s a few secret detention camps?

What’s wrong with destroying an environment for 4 billion years and generations after generations of people? After all, they’re just rag heads, aren’t they Mr. Bush?

Perhaps when Russia even begins to match your tremendous feats of glory can you speak about pulling back you fool of the worst kind.

You can also tell your number two man to shut up. Cheney said "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States."

So how do you plan to answer this erroneously termed “aggression”? He says this will “worsen” relations with the United States? Buddy, relations with the United States could hardly be any worse than they are now.

The United States shows no respect for Russia. The United States shows no respect for any other country weaker than itself, much less a rival as you perceive Russia to be. How about your NATO? Today the west, tomorrow the world, eh? America uber alles!

How about your missile shield breathing down the neck of the Russian nation? There to protect Europe from Iran? The most totally absurd thing that only a moron would believe.

How about your deliberate breaking of your agreements regarding Serbian Kosovo? UN Resolution 1244 which your country agreed to, is the ink dry…you deliberately went against it and recognized Kosovo in total disregard and in violation of that agreement.

And you expect your words to be heeded or even listened to? You are joking! It is said when Caligula went mad he heard laughing.

Do you hear people laughing at you Mr. Bush?

Listening to you, your Vice President, Condi Rice and US and western officials complain about "regime change," "invasion," "bloodshed" and "suffering civilians" (in the light of their crimes across the world) have become nothing but laughable at best and highly infuriating and enraging at worst.

You are an idiot!

We seem to recall that when your Israeli friends were absolutely devastating the people of Lebanon, wantonly killing civilians, destroying their country’s infrastructure and destroying their environment also….the flapping jaw of your representative, Condoleezza Rice and your entire administration were saying no ceasefire, no nothing, just keep on going, keep on committing acts of state terrorism on innocent people, keep on committing your war crimes, you have them covered.

Well, Mr. Bush, this is it. Moscow better get this one right: No limited engagement nonsense. Moscow has the moral and legal right to carry out full scale military operations within Ossetia, Abkhazia and Georgia to ensure the safety of its citizens, to ensure the protection of Abkhazians and Ossetians and to finally destroy NATO plans for the Caucasus region.

No sane, informed, honest, rational person can blame Russia for reacting to a genocide against their own citizens in Georgia. But then you are NONE of those things.

The problem is not what Russia is doing, but how the US is reacting to it. If you were sane, if you were informed, if you were honest, if you were rational, if you were even marginally fair, you should be happy to see Russian forces put an end to the killing of Russian citizens by the Georgian military. But no, your government is advised by lunatics who belong in psychiatric wards instead of the Pentagon and White House. And you, Mr. Bush, belong in an international criminal court to be judged for your crimes against peace and your crimes against humanity.

Lisa KARPOVA